Journal of Experimental and Clinical SurgeryJournal of Experimental and Clinical Surgery2070-478X2409-143XVoronezh State Medical University21310.18499/2070-478X-2013-6-2-208-212Predicates of Unfavorable Outcome of the Acute Pancreatitis with Primary Injury Head and Isthmus of Pancreasprof., Head. Department of General Surgery, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-Yasenetsky.author@vestnik-surgery.comMD, PhD, Assoc. Department of General Surgery, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-YasenetskyVikto-potapenk@yandex.ruclinical department of general surgery resident at Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-Yasenetskyauthor@vestnik-surgery.comKrasnoyarsk State Medical University named by prof. V.F. Voino-Jaseneckiy, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation24062013622082122704201627042016Copyright © 2013, ., ., .2013The purpose of the study There is development of method of estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas. Materials and methods 60 patients which had hard courses acute pancreatitis, aged of patients was between 19 and 80 years were studded. The patients with localization of inflammation in head and isthmus of pancreas were included in clinical group. Reactive response of neutrophil (RRN) was calculated on the ground of blood analysis. Indices of bilirubin in blood and diastase in urine are taken into account. Presence according to abdominal cavity organ CT – angiography’s dates significant signs of hard course acute pancreatitis are taken into account too. Results and their discussion The original method “Method of estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas” was developed for estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas. If we have each sign, decided quantities of points are given, and possible outcome of the pathologic process was judged by depending on total score. Sensitivity is 90,4%, specificity - 95,7%, accuracy - 87,1%, positive predictive value (PPV) - 86,3%, negative predictive value (NPV) - 97,1% Conclusion As a result, the introduced method make it possible to early identify of hard courses acute pancreatitis and prognoses unfavorable outcome of diseases.Acute pancreatitishead and isthmus of pancreashard coursepossible outcomeОстрый панкреатитголовка и перешеек поджелудочной железытяжелое течениевероятный исход[1. Bagnenko S.F., Tolstoi A.D., Gol'tsov V.R. [Protocols of the][diagnosis and treatment of acute pancreatitis at different stages][of the disease]. Mater. I kongr. mosk. khirurgov "Neotlozhnaia][i spetsializirovannaia khirurgicheskaia pomoshch" [Proc. 1st][congr. of Mocsow surgeons "Urgent and specialized surgical][care"] . Мoscow, 2005, 84-85. – (In Russian).][2. Beskosnyi A.A., Kasum'ian S.A. Criteria of the forecast of][severe acute pancreatitis. Annaly khirurgicheskoi gepatologii,][2003; 1: 24-32. – (In Russian).][3. Tolstoi A.D., Sopiia R.A., Krasnorogov V.B. Destruktivnyi][pankreatit i parapankreatit [Destructive pancreatitis and][parapancreatitis]. Saint-Petersburg, 1999. 128 p. – (In Russian).][4. Karabanov G.N. The use of leukocyte formula of blood to][assess the severity of intoxication. Vestnik khirurgii, 1989; 4:][146-149. – (In Russian).][5. Savel'ev V.S., Filimonov M.I., Burnevich S.Z. Classification][questions and surgical treatment of pancreatonecrosis. Annaly][khirurgii, 1999; 4: 34-38. – (In Russian).][6. Cappell M. Acute Pancreatitis: Etiology, Clinical Presentation,][Diagnosis, and Therapy. Medical Clinics of North America,][2008; 92: 4: 889-923.][7. Imrie C. Prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Ann. Ital. Chir., 1995;][66: 2: 187-189.][8. Bourgaux J., Defez C., Muller L. at al. Infectious complications,][prognostic factors and assessment of anti-infectious][management of 212 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis.][Gastroentérologie Clinique et Biologique, 2007; 4: 431-435.][9. Frossard J., Steer M., Pastor C. Acute pancreatitis. The Lancet,][2008; 371: 9607: 143-152.][10. Schütte K., Malfertheiner P. Markers for predicting severity][and progression of acute pancreatitis. Article Best Practice &][Research Clinical Gastroenterology, 2008; 22: 1: 75-90.]