Predicates of Unfavorable Outcome of the Acute Pancreatitis with Primary Injury Head and Isthmus of Pancreas

Abstract


The purpose of the study There is development of method of estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas. Materials and methods 60 patients which had hard courses acute pancreatitis, aged of patients was between 19 and 80 years were studded. The patients with localization of inflammation in head and isthmus of pancreas were included in clinical group. Reactive response of neutrophil (RRN) was calculated on the ground of blood analysis. Indices of bilirubin in blood and diastase in urine are taken into account. Presence according to abdominal cavity organ CT – angiography’s dates significant signs of hard course acute pancreatitis are taken into account too. Results and their discussion The original method “Method of estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas” was developed for estimate possible outcome of the acute pancreatitis with primary injury head and isthmus of pancreas. If we have each sign, decided quantities of points are given, and possible outcome of the pathologic process was judged by depending on total score. Sensitivity is 90,4%, specificity - 95,7%, accuracy - 87,1%, positive predictive value (PPV) - 86,3%, negative predictive value (NPV) - 97,1% Conclusion As a result, the introduced method make it possible to early identify of hard courses acute pancreatitis and prognoses unfavorable outcome of diseases.

Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named by prof. V.F. Voino-Jaseneckiy, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: author@vestnik-surgery.com
prof., Head. Department of General Surgery, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-Yasenetsky.

Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named by prof. V.F. Voino-Jaseneckiy, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Email: Vikto-potapenk@yandex.ru
MD, PhD, Assoc. Department of General Surgery, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-Yasenetsky

Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named by prof. V.F. Voino-Jaseneckiy, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Email: author@vestnik-surgery.com
clinical department of general surgery resident at Krasnoyarsk State Medical University. prof. VF Voyno-Yasenetsky

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